U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new 25 percent tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, effective immediately, on 12 January.
In a post on Trump’s social media website Truth Social, he wrote any country that is “doing business” with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a 25 percent tariff on “any and all business being done with the United States of America.”
“This Order is final and conclusive,” Trump wrote.
The post by Trump lacked any further details, and as of 13 January there has been no official executive order posted on the Whitehouse website, and no posting in the Federal Register about the tariffs. Trump did not explain what “doing business” meant in an economic sense for countries potentially subject to tariffs, or for the U.S.
If Trump’s potential future order means countries trading with Iran, one of the country’s top trade partners is China. According to United Nations statistics, Iran exported USD 20 billion (EUR 17 billion) worth of goods to China in 2024, making it the second-most valuable trade partner for the country. India is also among its top trading partners, as are Indonesia and Thailand.
The U.S. and China reached a trade deal in November after months of discussion, setting China’s effective tariff rate at 20 percent when the baseline global 10 percent tariff and the 10 percent “fentanyl” related tariffs are taken into account. Whether Trump’s 25 percent tariff would be on top of that, pushing tariffs to 45 percent, is still unclear.
In 2024, China was the U.S.’s seventh-largest trading partner for seafood, sending USD 1.52 billion (EUR 1.3 billion) worth of products to the U.S. in 2024 according to NOAA data.
India, the third-largest source of seafood for the U.S. by value, could also see its tariff rate jump from the current 50 percent to 75 percent depending on Trump’s order. India was the U.S.’s largest source of shrimp in 2024, responsible for 296,104 metric tons (MT) of shrimp in the year, well above its closest competitors.
India’s trade patterns are already shifting in response to the U.S.’s current tariffs on the country, which are the combination of two separate orders: the 25 percent “reciprocal” tariff Trump first announced on what he dubbed “Liberation day,” and an additional 25 percent which Trump said was related to India directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.
Indonesia, which could also be hit by the new tariff, is also a top seafood trading partner with the U.S., sending USD 1.9 billion (EUR 1.6 billion) in seafood goods to the U.S. in 2024 according to NOAA data. Indonesia is currently operating under a 19 percent tariff rate established via trade deal with the country which reduced the rate from the previously planned 32 percent. Trump’s promise of tariffs on countries doing business with Iran could potentially bring Indonesia’s tariff rate back up to 44 percent, and countering the U.S.’s own trade deal.
The threat of additional tariffs come as numerous seafood companies have been suing the Trump administration over its tariff program in anticipation of an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court decision which will decide if the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act overstepped Trump’s authority.
