U.S. grocery stores inclined in March 2025 in part thanks to concerns over tariffs and the timing of Lent.
Frozen seafood sales increased 5.1 percent year over year to USD 738 million (EUR 650 million) in March, while sales by volume in the category grew 3 percent, according to new Circana data analyzed by Lakeland, Florida, U.S.A.-based 210 Analytics.
Ambient seafood sales increased 4.4 percent to USD 276 million (EUR 243 million), and sales by volume increased 8 percent.
Fresh seafood sales realized slower growth at 1.9 percent – primarily due to higher shellfish prices – but sales still reached USD 679 million (EUR 598 million) in March; sales by volume rose 1.4 percent in the category.
During the month, frozen seafood prices rose 1.9 percent, while fresh seafood prices rose by 0.5 percent, driven mainly by fresh shellfish, which hiked up 3.4 percent. Ambient seafood prices dropped 3.4 percent.
“Retailers ran more promotions in shelf-stable seafood but cut back slightly on specials in frozen and refrigerated seafood compared to 2024,” 210 Analytics Principal Anne-Marie Roerink said.
Frozen seafood sales in March particularly benefited from the timing of Lent this year, Roerink said, as the holiday season started in early March compared to 2024, when it started in mid-February. Pollock sales by value surged 11.4 percent, salmon sales rose 7.8 percent, and tilapia sales increased 5.5 percent.
Overall, grocery and beverage store sales rose 3 percent year over year in March, and retail sales as a whole increased 4.75 percent after two months of declines, the CNBC/National Retail Federation (NRF) Retail Monitor found.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump granted a 90-day reprieve on tariffs against most countries except China on 9 April, but prior to that announcement, consumers were highly concerned about the impending tariffs and flocked to the grocery store in March to get pre-tariff prices as a result, the Retail Monitor highlighted.
“March’s [sales] increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”
Adding weight to that theory, a new Placer.ai report found that during the week of 24 to 30 March – before Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement – consumer visits to warehouse clubs increased 9.7 percent compared to the same week last year. A similar pattern was observed for electronics, home improvement, luxury department stores, and clothing stores.
Roerink added that 30 percent of shoppers are stockpiling some items out of concern for rising prices or worries they may soon be out of stock, with a particular increase seen in all types of canned items, which has benefited ambient seafood sales.
Circana Executive Vice President Perimeter Practice Leader Chris DuBois told SeafoodSource at the Circana Growth Summit, which ran from 7 to 9 April in Orlando, Florida, U.S.A., that he is more concerned about the impact of overall consumer sentiment on grocery sales this year than specific tariffs.
“People focus on whether the tariff is 25 percent or 15 percent, but I think the bigger question is whether this is going to pull back a consumer who has been really strong for a very long time – the same thing for business confidence,” DuBois said.
Nearly 80 percent of consumers who are aware of tariffs are concerned about the impact they will have on their personal financial situation, according to a February 210 Analytics survey.
“This includes concern over the cost of groceries, gasoline, etc. but also worries over employment impacts,” Roerink told SeafoodSource.
The ongoing economic uncertainty is leading to continued at-home meal preparation, according to Roerink, who noted that 80 percent of all meal occasions were prepared at home in March.
“Restaurant stocks have fallen more than the overall stock market amid investor fears that continued economic pressure will result in further focus on home-prepared meals versus restaurant trips,” Roerink said.
U.S. shoppers also continue to express concern about high grocery and restaurant prices. Overall food prices increased 3 percent year over year in March and 0.4 percent month over month, according to new U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index data.
